CBI tries to be CEI!

The CBI – Confederation for British Industry – has claimed that British industry is not ready for a no-deal Brexit.

Fair enough. But they then claimed that the EU isn’t ready for it either.

Haven’t we had enough of scare-mongering, of Project Fear?

If the CBI claim is true, they deserve a medal! The EU is made up of 27 other countries – and I know from experience that trying to find out where each and every EU member stands on a given subject is a really Herculean task!

I do happen to know that the country I live in, the Netherlands, is probably more prepared for a no-deal Brexit than the UK (in general) is.

One thing is certain: the 27 will look to each other to pick up the slack. The UK, the ‘one’, will have to start building bridges very, very quickly.

The ‘lie’ is that the UK will slip easily into WTO rules in the event of a no-deal Brexit on 31st October. Dominic Raab promoted that illusion again today in an interview.

For the record: if WTO rules had been such an attractive alternative, the UK should have opted for that much earlier.

Again, for the record: the withdrawal agreement does not contain controversial content at all. It is a legal document which takes care of the nuts and bolts of cutting the various ties between the EU and the UK.

The only ‘problem’ is the Irish backstop which, when you think about it, is entirely logical. Brexit creates a land border between the UK and the EU, and all the backstop does is state that this border needs to be policed until the final trade agreement is in place. Two years, as a transition, are allowed for in the agreement for this transition. What the UK parliament cannot agree on is actually what that long-term relationship should be.

I wouldn’t exclude a variation of the political agreement, but the idea that the UK could achieve a preferential position above the remaining 27 partners is a total non-starter.

Modern Luddites!

“Spending billions of pounds on HS2 is not worth it to create “some jobs in Birmingham”, an MP has said.
Victoria Prentis, Conservative MP for Banbury, said there are more cost-effective ways to boost employment.” (Quote from the BBC website)

It really is so disappointing to see how many politicians can be so blinkered.

Of course it is a lot of money. Of course it will not create instant jobs everywhere. Of course a country like the UK needs a good (rail) infrastructure!!

Northern Powerhouse

Distances in the UK are deceptive. East-West in the north faces the Pennine challenge. North-South is a heck of a long way!

Other countries in Europe are far ahead when it comes to transport infrastructure. Spain and France come to mind. Germany has an extensive road network but their rail connections lag behind. The Low Countries are smaller but have invested quite a bit over the years, and are still doing so.

London to Newcastle (the full HS2 and HS3 project) and Liverpool to Hull (also HS3) should be started now. The bills may seem enormous but they will be spread over a good number of years (15 to 25 years). By then, other countries will be replacing or upgrading their HiSpeed rail links while the UK is still trying to open theirs.

Mobility is the name of the game. The UK is bad at it. The road network is not too bad, but we should be encouraging people off the roads, and off aeroplanes! Good rail connections – for both people and goods – are the answer.

The discussion should not be about ‘if’ such rail connections are necessary, but about when they will be in service. Rail travel is more environmentally friendly than any of the alternatives. If the UK wants to spread economic opportunity throughout the UK then good rail connections are vital.

Boris’ first day

Yesterday Boris Johnson went to the Palace and kissed hands with the Queen. Not literally, apparently; that’s just the expression that’s used.

Since returning from seeing the Queen, he has made two speeches and drawn up his new cabinet.

His speeches revealed little we didn’t know. He wants to keep a no-deal Brexit on the table and get the Irish backstop out of any withdrawal agreement. Good luck with either of those!

Parliament is going to have to show very changed voting patterns (after the summer recess) if he is going to successfully get away with no-deal. It would be a serious blow to the UK to suddenly sever all ties to the EU, and would sour relations with a good number of EU countries.

He thinks he can get away with not paying the divorce bill, too. That would not be easily forgotten or forgiven for some time to come.

In short, Boris Johnson would make a lot of enemies at home and abroad. The Conservative party could cease to be the party of small businessmen overnight, for example. Not the least because some would probably go out of business.

The Hippocratic oath talks about ‘doing no harm’; what a pity governments don’t get held to the same requirement. Doctors could never get away with saying ‘you can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs’, but politicians mouth the words on a daily basis.

In short, his two first two speeches, one to the nation on the steps (almost) of Downing Street and the other today in the Commons, were heavy on emotion and devoid of concrete solutions.

The Irish backstop will be defended by the EU for two reasons. One of their member states needs that protection (the Republic of Ireland) and because the border would be an open backdoor for people and goods to travel from outside to inside the EU without any checks.

Technology may be an answer, but it is not even available yet! And, I am sorry to say this, technology does not decrease bureaucracy, it increases it! Ask any policeman or health worker if filling in case details in a computer is more or less time-consuming than in the ‘old’ days.

I had a small example at work even today. One of our customers will no longer process ordinary invoices sent to them, even if they are sent digitally. I now have to go to a special online platform and create what is essentially a database record with the information I would have normally put on the invoice. I still have to create the normal paper trail in my office for the accounting department, and if every customer made use of a different online platform, it would take me days to do the invoicing which at the moment just takes me a few hours a month.

Essentially, Boris Johnson believes that just because he says something can be done, it can. I am very much afraid that 27 other governments are going to turn round and tell him it doesn’t work like that. I haven’t read yet of any EU leader that is actually pleased it is Boris Johnson that has replaced Theresa May, let alone optimistic.

He is not an uneducated man. I cannot believe he doesn’t understand how difficult it is for a Prime Minister to actually deliver pie in the sky promises.

The proof of the pudding will be in the eating, and in 3 months from now we will know. Will I be eating my words?

Citizenship

The UK government underlined today that EU citizens resident in the UK would not be shown the door after Brexit. It is not the first time this has been said, but in truth it is a very hollow statement for two main reasons.

Firstly, it says nothing about the rights of those EU citizens after Brexit which, in all honesty, would be less than they enjoy at present under the free-movement policy of the EU.

Secondly, it says nothing at all about the position of UK citizens at present living and working elsewhere in the EU, such as myself.

I have complained before in this blog about the exclusion of ex-pats from the franchise and of course they are being completely forgotten in the closing phase of the negotiations. Our position is actually far more complicated because we would not be subject to EU rules technically. We would become non-EU citizens overnight, and each individual EU member country would apply their own rules as to their status. Brussels has little or no jurisdiction over member-states’ policies on non-EU citizens.

Although the Dutch government has yet to legislate for UK passport holders living in the Netherlands (where I live), there is a simple move that would ease the minds of many who have lived here for at least 5 years: relax the rules on dual nationality for UK citizens. The law already contains exceptions, including allowing dual nationality with countries where you cannot give up your native passport. Extend that to UK citizens, at the very least to those who qualify for a Dutch passport by the date the UK leaves the EU.

Such a move would not solve every problem. I do not expect there to be an agreement on the continued consolidation of pension entitlement for Brits who have some years to claim from the UK. When I retire – still nearly 5 years from now – I will not get any state pension from the UK since I had only built up 7 years of entitlement before moving out of the country and the minimum contribution is now 10 years instead of the previous 5. The consolidation option, whereby the country you have the largest accumulation of qualifying years can be requested to add years worked in other EU countries (claiming it back from the countries involved centrally) would cease to apply after Brexit.

At least with dual nationality we would maintain free movement within the EU and the UK (post Brexit) and keep the door open to return permanently to the UK with a minimum of bureaucracy. So, Mr Rutte, what about it? In any event, it is high time the Dutch government clarified what the position of UK citizens resident in the Netherlands will be. The UK has dragged its feet during the negotiations on the deal, but the Dutch government is no better on this point. A year and a half after Article 50 was triggered by the UK, the Dutch government has done no better than utter soothing words which are meaningless unless backed up in law.

Informed consent

Some in Britain are calling for a people’s vote on the deal (still to be) reached between the UK and the EU on Brexit.

A doctor, part of a panel on Victoria Derbyshire’s morning current affairs programme today, made a striking point which rang a distinct bell with me.

Before undergoing surgery, for example, a patient must give ‘informed consent’. This means that not only must they consent to the procedure, they must be given all the relevant information on which to base that decision. You want to know not only what the surgeon is going to do, but what improvement or cure for your condition it will bring and what the potential risks are.

The doctor’s point was that when the referendum was held, the voters were not given all the relevant information. In fact, they were also given “facts” that we now know were completely unfounded. She said that if she provided as little or misleading information to a patient, she would end up being struck off!

The referendum did provide consent, but it was not informed consent. I choose to believe that was not essentially deliberate. We all hear political rhetoric every day, and almost as soon as the paint was dry on that bus, few people really believed that the NHS would get that 350 million pounds a week which would supposedly be saved by cancelling our membership to the European club.

The truth is that the real difficulties and ramifications of what would become known as Brexit were simply not known when the referendum was held. The few voices that tried to speak out were ridiculed and accused of promoting Project Fear. By the way, they still are! Project Fear has become synonymous with any critical comments dismissed by the other side of an argument, irrespective of whether or not there is any truth or foundation in said comments. It is a cheap retort seemingly voiced by those unwilling to enter into an actual reasoned debate.

With every day that goes by, the possibility of a hard Brexit – one with no deal in place – is looming larger and larger. Even now the consequences of that are being played down, but there are very real problems to overcome. Take customs checks at ports like Dover, or civil aviation, or the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland for example. The resolution of these issues without accepting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice on at least some aspects is impossible. The point has also been made that there is currently no country trading with the EU solely on World Trade Organisation terms.

There is, I think, an inherent weakness in the Article 50 procedure anyway. Most of the practical problems that weren’t even conceived when the referendum was held have only come to light as the negotiations progressed. The two-year period allowed for in Article 50 is simply too short to expose these issues and have an informed public debate on them. It is certainly too short for a country like the UK to disentangle itself from the complicated web of common agreements and rules which have been the order of the day for the UK’s day-to-day cooperation with its European neighbours.

Only now are we becoming informed. Better late than never perhaps. However, a public vote on the final deal would be based on completely different information than the original referendum. This time, at least, the real price of securing the goals Brexiteers wanted would be known.

Big Ben

Reading from afar, the news that some MPs, led apparently by Theresa May, are lamenting the silencing of the chimes from the Queen Elizabeth Tower for the next four years is absolutely laughable!

I mean it – I laughed out loud when I heard that!

One’s faith in the contact MPs have with reality is really challenged on this one. The tower itself needs renovating, and the image of workmen having to scamper into hiding every time the clock chimed is priceless. The clock itself needs work done to it too, apparently. Let them get on with it, I say!

When would be a good time to do this? After the next general election?

With so many important issues demanding the government and parliament’s attention, they should really avoid doing a ‘Boris’ and make ridiculous comments on such things as the silence of the chimes!

Whatever next? Heaven forbid they demand the re-casting of Big Ben itself, so that the crack which gives the bell its distinctive sound is removed!

Rights of UK citizens in the EU – chapter two

Today – 27th July – the government have announced their intentions regarding the position of EU nationals in the UK.

What has not been addressed is the position of UK nationals living in other EU countries. It seems that we are to be ‘sacrificed’. If we had lived out of the UK too long, we had no right to vote in the Brexit referendum, and our status or future post-Brexit is now of no interest, it seems.

Whatever my personal motivation was for living and working in another EU country, it is looking as if I will have no choice but to renounce my nationality and become Dutch. Only then can I at least be assured of some state pension albeit without the years I paid into the UK system before I left.

Princess Diana and Channel 4

If one accepts that chasing motorcycle ‘paparazzi’ were a major contributor to the accident that resulted in the death of Princess Diana 20 years ago, Channel 4 are behaving no better 20 years on.

The term ‘gutter press’ used to apply to certain Fleet Street publications, but is now equally applicable to broadcast media now.

All of us have said things in private we would not want broadcast either now or years after our death. This is not ‘public interest’ that is being served by the broadcast of excerpts from these tapes. Most of us have a pretty good idea how grim things were in the marriage between Prince Charles and Lady Diana. We do not need private utterances to be publicly aired. Diana herself would be appalled that simple camcord recordings would later be broadcast to the whole nation. Did she give permission for this? No, of course not.

The Duke of Cambridge and his brother have given a good account of their position in recent years. They do not deserve in the slightest that such dirty laundry concerning their parents be aired now.

Channel 4 say that their motivation is the public record. It is not! Their motivation is financial profit, pure and simple.

My heart goes out to the two princes – they have done nothing to deserve this.

Rights of UK citizens in the EU – chapter one!

As I write, there are displaced people in London unable to return to their homes in a tower block. Much as I feel for them, their lives will return to normal again, sooner or later. What feels unfair is that their plight is being given more air-time than people such as myself whose lives are on a semi-permanent hold at the moment.

I am a British citizen who has lived on the mainland of Europe – by choice – since 1980.

I have a job and support myself, and live quite happily in my ‘adopted’ country, the Netherlands.

Until David Cameron made good on his promise of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, there wasn’t a cloud on the horizon. I wasn’t a burden on the UK tax payer, and am fully insured, also for health, in the Dutch system.

It all went pear-shaped for me a year ago. Of the around 1 million UK citizens living abroad, only those still possessing voting rights in the UK were allowed to take part in the referendum. That was the first downer for me!

The result, clearly the second!

By the time I retire, just after the Brexit deadline in 2019, there will be serious consequences for my pension. EU rules allow for consolidating pension entitlement from different countries; that will not apply to me post-Brexit with respect to my UK contributions. I would have to apply separately for that – and the UK rules now are a minimum of 10 years’ contributions. I have 7. That means I can kiss goodbye to any OAP entitlement from the UK. I am not allowed to buy in to it either.

I will now have to rely on my pension entitlements from the countries I have lived in within the EU. My most recent summary would not even pay my rent, let alone leave me money for anything else. Losing the UK component – which I worked for – will be decisive.

Bitter? Yes! Very many Brits go abroad only for holidays, and then only to places where they can still get their fish-and-chips. Fractionally just more than half of those that voted last year following the most farcical campaign in recent history, voted to leave the EU. I was not allowed a say.

Yesterday, the UK government announced in the Commons the ‘deal’ they proposed for EU nationals living in the UK. Their counter demand is that the EU allows Brits in EU countries the same rights.

What they have forgotten is that the EU actually does not have the power to determine how member countries treat non-EU citizens! Each country has the right to decide the terms themselves. It doesn’t seem likely that 27 countries will agree on a common, generous approach!