Month: July 2019

CBI tries to be CEI!

Posted on by gotthepatter

The CBI – Confederation for British Industry – has claimed that British industry is not ready for a no-deal Brexit.

Fair enough. But they then claimed that the EU isn’t ready for it either.

Haven’t we had enough of scare-mongering, of Project Fear?

If the CBI claim is true, they deserve a medal! The EU is made up of 27 other countries – and I know from experience that trying to find out where each and every EU member stands on a given subject is a really Herculean task!

I do happen to know that the country I live in, the Netherlands, is probably more prepared for a no-deal Brexit than the UK (in general) is.

One thing is certain: the 27 will look to each other to pick up the slack. The UK, the ‘one’, will have to start building bridges very, very quickly.

The ‘lie’ is that the UK will slip easily into WTO rules in the event of a no-deal Brexit on 31st October. Dominic Raab promoted that illusion again today in an interview.

For the record: if WTO rules had been such an attractive alternative, the UK should have opted for that much earlier.

Again, for the record: the withdrawal agreement does not contain controversial content at all. It is a legal document which takes care of the nuts and bolts of cutting the various ties between the EU and the UK.

The only ‘problem’ is the Irish backstop which, when you think about it, is entirely logical. Brexit creates a land border between the UK and the EU, and all the backstop does is state that this border needs to be policed until the final trade agreement is in place. Two years, as a transition, are allowed for in the agreement for this transition. What the UK parliament cannot agree on is actually what that long-term relationship should be.

I wouldn’t exclude a variation of the political agreement, but the idea that the UK could achieve a preferential position above the remaining 27 partners is a total non-starter.

Modern Luddites!

Posted on by gotthepatter

“Spending billions of pounds on HS2 is not worth it to create “some jobs in Birmingham”, an MP has said.
Victoria Prentis, Conservative MP for Banbury, said there are more cost-effective ways to boost employment.” (Quote from the BBC website)

It really is so disappointing to see how many politicians can be so blinkered.

Of course it is a lot of money. Of course it will not create instant jobs everywhere. Of course a country like the UK needs a good (rail) infrastructure!!

Northern Powerhouse

Posted on by gotthepatter

Distances in the UK are deceptive. East-West in the north faces the Pennine challenge. North-South is a heck of a long way!

Other countries in Europe are far ahead when it comes to transport infrastructure. Spain and France come to mind. Germany has an extensive road network but their rail connections lag behind. The Low Countries are smaller but have invested quite a bit over the years, and are still doing so.

London to Newcastle (the full HS2 and HS3 project) and Liverpool to Hull (also HS3) should be started now. The bills may seem enormous but they will be spread over a good number of years (15 to 25 years). By then, other countries will be replacing or upgrading their HiSpeed rail links while the UK is still trying to open theirs.

Mobility is the name of the game. The UK is bad at it. The road network is not too bad, but we should be encouraging people off the roads, and off aeroplanes! Good rail connections – for both people and goods – are the answer.

The discussion should not be about ‘if’ such rail connections are necessary, but about when they will be in service. Rail travel is more environmentally friendly than any of the alternatives. If the UK wants to spread economic opportunity throughout the UK then good rail connections are vital.

Boris’ first day

Posted on by gotthepatter

Yesterday Boris Johnson went to the Palace and kissed hands with the Queen. Not literally, apparently; that’s just the expression that’s used.

Since returning from seeing the Queen, he has made two speeches and drawn up his new cabinet.

His speeches revealed little we didn’t know. He wants to keep a no-deal Brexit on the table and get the Irish backstop out of any withdrawal agreement. Good luck with either of those!

Parliament is going to have to show very changed voting patterns (after the summer recess) if he is going to successfully get away with no-deal. It would be a serious blow to the UK to suddenly sever all ties to the EU, and would sour relations with a good number of EU countries.

He thinks he can get away with not paying the divorce bill, too. That would not be easily forgotten or forgiven for some time to come.

In short, Boris Johnson would make a lot of enemies at home and abroad. The Conservative party could cease to be the party of small businessmen overnight, for example. Not the least because some would probably go out of business.

The Hippocratic oath talks about ‘doing no harm’; what a pity governments don’t get held to the same requirement. Doctors could never get away with saying ‘you can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs’, but politicians mouth the words on a daily basis.

In short, his two first two speeches, one to the nation on the steps (almost) of Downing Street and the other today in the Commons, were heavy on emotion and devoid of concrete solutions.

The Irish backstop will be defended by the EU for two reasons. One of their member states needs that protection (the Republic of Ireland) and because the border would be an open backdoor for people and goods to travel from outside to inside the EU without any checks.

Technology may be an answer, but it is not even available yet! And, I am sorry to say this, technology does not decrease bureaucracy, it increases it! Ask any policeman or health worker if filling in case details in a computer is more or less time-consuming than in the ‘old’ days.

I had a small example at work even today. One of our customers will no longer process ordinary invoices sent to them, even if they are sent digitally. I now have to go to a special online platform and create what is essentially a database record with the information I would have normally put on the invoice. I still have to create the normal paper trail in my office for the accounting department, and if every customer made use of a different online platform, it would take me days to do the invoicing which at the moment just takes me a few hours a month.

Essentially, Boris Johnson believes that just because he says something can be done, it can. I am very much afraid that 27 other governments are going to turn round and tell him it doesn’t work like that. I haven’t read yet of any EU leader that is actually pleased it is Boris Johnson that has replaced Theresa May, let alone optimistic.

He is not an uneducated man. I cannot believe he doesn’t understand how difficult it is for a Prime Minister to actually deliver pie in the sky promises.

The proof of the pudding will be in the eating, and in 3 months from now we will know. Will I be eating my words?