In Nice in France, a terrible tragedy has just taken place. A lorry mowed down people crowded on the seafront for the Bastille Day celebration fireworks.
From the French President down, through the media reports, and even in the USA, the immediate assumption was made that this was a terrorist attack. That may yet prove to be the case, but not a single piece of evidence has yet been brought to light to support that.
There is however evidence that the driver of the lorry was somewhat mentally unstable, and anti-social, and possibly even off his meds.
I miss two lines of reasoning in the media reports I am reading and watching on television:
- what if the driver was acting alone and this was nothing to do with terrorism but failed mental-health care?
- what if France, from the President down, have to eat their words?
There was a mention that some of the arsenal the driver had with him was fake. Is that true?
His father in Tunisia seems to have records showing his treatment for mental health issues. Is that true?
To date (also very soon, I admit) there is no evidence that this man had been radicalised. Is that true?
Will the French investigation solely focus on trying to establish a terrorist element / link? Or will it also be open for a non-terrorist explanation?
From time to time we read of lone escapades, some with a deadly outcome. The murder of the British MP Jo Cox was one of those. It was not a terrorist action.
But what if the death toll rises beyond 80, as in this case? A terrorist inspired plot would comfortably/uncomfortably explain what happened; someone with mental health issues armed with just a lorry but causing such carnage – that is even harder to contemplate.
Spoiler alert! What I do not want to see, although it has already started to happen in the wake of this incident, is that followers of Islam get the blame for a deed that was not instigated by extremist terrorists. That there is such a thing seems to be a complete curve ball for everyone concerned!